Weather Regimes and Preferred Transition Paths in a Three-Level Quasigeostrophic Model

Multiple flow regimes are reexamined in a global, three-level, quasigeostrophic (QG3) model with realistic topography in spherical geometry. This QG3 model, using a T21 triangular truncation in the horizontal, has a fairly realistic climatology for Northern Hemisphere winter and exhibits multiple regimes that resemble those found in atmospheric observations. Four regimes are robust to changes in the classification method, k-means versus mixture modeling, and its parameters. These regimes correspond roughly to opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. The Markov chain representation of regime transitions is refined here by finding the preferred transition paths in a three-dimensional (3D) subspace of the model’s phase space. Preferred transitions occur from the positive phase of the NAO (NAO) to that of the AO (AO), from AO to NAO, and from NAO to NAO, but not directly between opposite phases of the AO. The angular probability density function (PDF) of the regime exits that correspond to these preferred transitions have one or, sometimes, two fairly sharp maxima. These angular PDF maxima are, in most cases, not aligned with the line segments between regime centroids in phase space and might point to heteroclinic or homoclinic connections between unstable equilibria in the model’s phase space. Preferred transitions paths are also determined for a stochastically forced Lorenz system to help explain this striking feature of the QG3 model. The episodic description of the model’s low-frequency variability via the Markov chain of multiple regimes is complemented by an oscillatory description. Multichannel singular-spectrum analysis is applied to the trajectory in the same 3D subspace. Two statistically significant oscillations are found and have periods of 19 and 37 days, respectively. Both oscillations have four composites that include NAO, AO, and NAO, in this order. The fourth composite occurs between AO and NAO; it resembles the Pacific–North American pattern, which is not captured by the model’s episodic description. The two oscillations have similar spatial patterns, and are weakly phased locked. They have certain features in common with the westward-propagating Branstator–Kushnir wave, as well as with the standing oscillation that arises from the oscillatory topographic instability of Ghil and associates.